April 03, 2022:  at Richmond Raceway in Richmond, Virginia. (HHP/Chris Owens)
(HHP/Chris Owens)

NASCAR Nuggets: Richmond Playoff Clinching Scenarios

And then there was one.

Kevin Harvick’s win in Sunday’s (Aug. 7) NASCAR Cup Series race at Michigan International Speedway leaves just one open slot in the 16-driver field for the playoffs.

There have been 15 different drivers who have won at least once in the first 23 races of the season. That ties the NASCAR Cup Series record from 2003 and 2011 seasons for different winners in that span.

Entering Sunday’s Federated Auto Parts 400 (3 p.m. ET on USA Network), there are three races left in the regular season. Ryan Blaney is the driver who finds himself sitting in the 16th and final open spot on the playoff grid.

He’s only 19 points ahead of Martin Truex Jr.

Here are the playoff clinching scenarios heading into Richmond.

Already Clinched

The following seven drivers have clinched a spot in the 16-driver postseason field: Chase Elliott, Ross Chastain, Kyle Larson, Joey Logano, William Byron, Tyler Reddick and Denny Hamlin.

Can Clinch Via Previous Wins

The following drivers could clinch on previous wins with a win by Chase Elliott:

  • Christopher Bell: Would clinch with 18 points

  • Kyle Busch: Would clinch with 50 points

  • Kevin Harvick: Could only clinch with help

  • Alex Bowman: Could only clinch with help

  • Daniel Suarez: Could only clinch with help

The following drivers could clinch on previous wins with a win by Ross Chastain, Kyle Larson, Joey Logano, Christopher Bell, Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick, William Byron, Alex Bowman, Tyler Reddick, Daniel Suarez, Denny Hamlin:

  • Christopher Bell: Would clinch with 25 points

  • Kyle Busch: Could only clinch with help

  • Kevin Harvick: Could only clinch with help

  • Alex Bowman: Could only clinch with help

  • Daniel Suarez: Could only clinch with help

The following drivers could clinch on previous wins with a win by Aric Almirola (or another winless driver below him in the standings):

  • Christopher Bell: Would clinch with 25 points

  • Kyle Busch: Could only clinch with help

  • Kevin Harvick: Could only clinch with help

The following drivers could clinch on previous wins with a win by Chase Briscoe:

  • Christopher Bell: Would clinch with 29 points

  • Kyle Busch: Could only clinch with help

  • Kevin Harvick: Could only clinch with help

  • Alex Bowman: Could only clinch with help

  • Daniel Suarez: Could only clinch with help

The following drivers could clinch on previous wins with a win by Austin Cindric:

  • Christopher Bell: Would clinch with 31 points

  • Kyle Busch: Could only clinch with help

  • Kevin Harvick: Could only clinch with help

  • Alex Bowman: Could only clinch with help

  • Daniel Suarez: Could only clinch with help

The following drivers could clinch on previous wins with a win by Ryan Blaney, Martin Truex Jr., Erik Jones or Kurt Busch:

  • Christopher Bell: Would clinch with 31 points

  • Kyle Busch: Could only clinch with help

  • Kevin Harvick: Could only clinch with help

Can Clinch Via Win

The following drivers would clinch on their win alone:

  • Ryan Blaney, Martin Truex Jr., Christopher Bell, Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick, Alex Bowman, Daniel Suarez, Chase Briscoe, Austin Cindric, Kurt Busch

Regular Season Title?

The regular-season championship in the NASCAR Cup Series has only been in existence for six years.

And in the first four, it was won by four different drivers:  Kyle Larson (2021), Kevin Harvick (2020), Kyle Busch (2019, 2018) and Martin Truex Jr. (2017). 

Chase Elliott could become the fifth different winner.

The Hendrick Motorsports driver has been No. 1 in the point standings since the spring race at Atlanta Motor Speedway. He enters this weekend’s race at Richmond with a 119-point advantage over Blaney.

All Elliott needs to do to clinch the regular season title – and the 15 playoff points that come with it – is collect 58 points on Sunday.

For reference, the maximum number of points a driver can earn in a race is 60 – 40 points for winning a race, plus 10 points each for winning the first two stages.

Winless Streaks

Kevin Harvick’s win last weekend at Michigan snapped a 65-race winless streak for the Stewart-Haas Racing driver.

That stretch all the way back to the Bristol night race in 2020.

Who has the longest active losing streaks in the NASCAR Cup Series?

Chris Buescher (218 races since last win; Pocono 2016)

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (186 races; Daytona 2017)

Justin Haley (113 races; Daytona 2019)

Erik Jones (103 races; Southern 500 2019)

Cole Custer (78 races; Kentucky 2020)

Austin Dillon (77 races; Texas 2020)

Michael McDowell (58 races; Daytona 500 2020)

Brad Keselowski (49 races; Talladega 2021)

Aric Almirola (37 races; New Hampshire 2021)

Ryan Blaney (33 races; Daytona 2021)

Of theses drivers, Keselowski is the only one with a victory at Richmond Raceway (2014, 2020).